Of Economic Trends, Surprises & ETF Investing

Sep 18, 2013

Some basic economic data:

 

 

But how do you use that to actually execute a portfolio strategy?   Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index hasn't been bullish,  yet market has gone persistently up --- including economically sensitive stocks like Industrials.

 

Well,  one important way is to watch the trends in the securities (and indexes of securities) themselves.    This guarantees you don't get too far out of sync with what is happening in the financial markets.   You don't invest in economic statistics after all, you invest in securities.    Just remember to keep tabs on your portfolio risk.

 

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Emerging Markets Index EPS vs S&P 500 Index EPS

Sep 01, 2013 in Earnings | Emerging Markets

 

Emerging Markets fundamentals as measured by earnings have been very weak.    Will this stay isolated or is it an indicator of weakness that will spill elsewhere?    S&P 500 earnings can be quite resilient to segment weakness -- but stay tuned to see how this plays out as this divergence may also be telling us something:

 

Source: Bloomberg

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