Jan 31, 2019 ETFreplay Market-Generated Information (MGI) Report ETF Backtest

Jan 31, 2019

 Jan 31, 2019  ETFreplay Market-Generated Information (MGI) Report

Focus on using TIPS index as a backtest parameter for Energy Stocks (XLE)

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Jan 23, 2019 ETFreplay Market-Generated Information (MGI) Report

Jan 23, 2019

 Jan 23, 2019  ETFreplay Market-Generated Information (MGI) Report

Focus on FedEX (FDX) as a backtest parameter.

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Jan 17, 2019 ETFreplay Market-Generated Information (MGI) Report

Jan 17, 2019

Jan 17, 2019  ETFreplay Market-Generated Information Report:  A look at where we stand with some key Financials including a backtest: 

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Comparing 2 Ultra-Simple ETF Backtests Side By Side

Jan 15, 2019 in Advanced Relative Strength | Backtest

 The example below is pretty self-explanatory but in a nutshell it compares 2 strategies set side by side in detached browser windows. 

Strategy A on left uses 2 pieces:   1.  50% choose 1 of 3 ETFs using 11-month total return  2.  other 50% using 6-month returns on the same portfolio of ETFs, also choose 1...

Strategy B on right using 1 strategy:  using ONLY 11-month returns.

Rather than only highlight just the overall total return of each,  of high importance is looking at the year by year (Calendar) returns vs a benchmark.   The 100% 11-month strategy has seen years of large outperformance and underperformance.   The blended strategy would have been much easier to stick by and actually achieve the end result - in addition it added return over the period.    We know from many research papers that 3 - 12 month relative strength all have some level of validity long-term.   No matter what the very long-term backtest looks like for these 2 strategies, we cannot know for sure which one is going to do better over the next 10 years.   But we can glean information by studying different types of backtests and help make a judgment about what is happening now.    Indeed, backtests primary function is to help guide you to understand what is happening in the most recent (current) period. 

 

 

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The Nikkei has been flat for a LONG time. Yes so have lots of securities. Example: Micron MU.

Jan 07, 2019 in Backtest | Stocks

 A classic argument you hear is that the Nikkei (which went exponential in the 1980's) has been dead for a generation.   Yes, but you could say the same thing about lots of securities.   Here is EWJ (Japan fund) -- flat this century vs a very simple tactical strategy... and Micron (MU), which is actually -16% this century. If the S&P 500 goes into a wide trading range with low Buy & Hold returns, tactical asset allocation can still work. Even when there is no wind ON AVERAGE over the long-run, tactical investing can augment returns with the intermediate-term gusts.

 

 

 

 

Note:

Note that in these examples the backtest is extremely conservative in that it assumes you never earn any return when out of the stock, which can be lengthy periods of time. In reality a bond fund or similar relatively low risk yield fund is very easy to access. Use our Ratio Moving Average backtest and check the results on those. Ratio Moving Average Backtest Module (Members link)

 ETFreplay Summary Page -- Individual Stocks

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