Financials Sector Earnings Per Share

Jul 01, 2014 in Earnings | Sectors

A look at Financial Sector Earnings. 

 

 

 

 

Understand the ETFreplay Backtesting Layout Here:

ETFreplay Backtesting Layout Video

 

Follow us on Follow etfreplay on Twitter

Tags:

Emerging Markets Index EPS vs S&P 500 Index EPS

Sep 01, 2013 in Earnings | Emerging Markets

 

Emerging Markets fundamentals as measured by earnings have been very weak.    Will this stay isolated or is it an indicator of weakness that will spill elsewhere?    S&P 500 earnings can be quite resilient to segment weakness -- but stay tuned to see how this plays out as this divergence may also be telling us something:

 

Source: Bloomberg

Follow us on Follow etfreplay on Twitter

Tags:

S&P 500 Consensus EPS As Of Aug 9 vs Same Point Prior Years

Aug 09, 2013 in Earnings | S&P 500

 

Growth for S&P 500 index earnings has been a little north of 6% on a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) basis since 1999.

 

Follow us on Follow etfreplay on Twitter

Tags:

Technology Sector ETF Briefing

Feb 08, 2013 in Earnings | Sectors

Technology was ground zero of the 2001 recession.   It also took a big hit in 2008 but it was housing & financials that were the central problems in 2008.    In 2013, at first blush Tech once again has an ominous feeling to it:

 

 

Tech is 20.8% of S&P 500 estimated EPS and the largest component -- so this is obviously important.   Here is the present breakdown of the current ~$111.00 S&P 500 estimate:

 

And here are the largest market cap companies within the tech sector:

This situation is not much like 2001-2002, many components of tech are doing quite well (QCOM, ORCL, V etc..).   Apple took a big hit in earnings but its hard to imagine a scenario where it melts down from here like Cisco and others did back in 2001.   Cisco rode the telecom bubble up and then crashed.   Apples customer base isn't in crash mode so from that perspective it is not at all comparable.   Companies like Microsoft & IBM are very large net income contributors and have stable businesses and in no way can you say they have benefit from any type of telecom/internet bubble in recent years.

As we scan this list, it is remarkable how balanced it seems.  Indeed, a company like Hewlett-Packard is only 3.0% of the technology SECTOR net income and far less than that in terms of overall S&P 500 earnings.   But that doesn't mean something unforseen can't develop which sinks a lot of these companies earnings -- and we should continue to monitor where problems develop and how likely that could be to cause problems in overall economy.  

Note that if you look at a equal-weighted version of Tech (RYT),  rather than an AAPL weighted version -- it is a much different look.

 

 

Follow us on Follow etfreplay on Twitter

Tags:

Financials vs Technology Sector Earnings

Jan 20, 2013 in Earnings | Sectors

In the last blog post, we showed how S&P 500 earnings were tracking vs past years.  This blog looks at 2 of the major sectors that generate those earnings.

All of the major banks have reported earnings for Q4 and given guidance for 2013, so estimates for those companies are up to date.   Meanwhile, tech companies for the most part will be reporting over the next 2 weeks.   Nevertheless, in the chart below you can see how tech is pulling the overall S&P 500 earnings down while Financials have been a positive influence since Sep 30.

 

Below is a comparison of the recent returns for these 2 key sectors:

 

 

 

Since many XLF components have reported earnings recently, here is a look at the components:

 

 

Note how Goldman Sachs is the leader here.   The largest negative contributor to S&P earnings has been Apple -- having missed the September quarter and analysts have continued to cut estimates since.   Below compares GS to AAPL for a striking difference:

 

Feedback is welcome -- please let us know if you like this kind of detail on key ETF holdings or if you have any comments or questions: Contact Us

Follow us on Follow etfreplay on Twitter

Tags:

S&P 500 Index Earnings Relationship to S&P 500 Is Not Straightforward

Jan 03, 2013 in Earnings | S&P 500

As we head to earnings season, let's look at what has happened in past years EPS progression for the S&P 500.   We have indexed everything to begin on Sep 30 of each year and show the change coming from that starting point.

 

2009 was a massive outlier so we excluded it ---- earnings estimates totally collapsed that year in delayed fashion to the 2008 financial crisis.  Stocks that year of course cratered from January to March and then turned hard and  ended 2009 with a very big up year.    A financial crisis of that magnitude isn't going to happen again anytime soon and it is certainly nothing like the set-up we have coming into 2013.   Someday maybe again -- and if it does begin tracking that during the next few months, we will be sure to let you know. :)

The point of the above is to show that the relationship between earnings and the stock market should not be taken so confidently.    Said another way,  the volatility of the P/E multiple dwarfs changes in actual fundamentals (as defined by something like index earnings estimates).    Whenever you have something very volatile, it will be hard to make precise sense of it from a pure fundamental basis.    Fundamentals are important --- but there are good reasons why the market is much more volatile than underlying earnings and this has to due to so many other factors --- including behavioral issues dealing with confidence, fear, greed,  missing out etc...

Here is a snapshot of S&P 500 and 2012 earnings overlaid on the same chart to see what happend in the most recent year relative to what are now historical earnings.

 

 

 

 

Follow us on Follow etfreplay on Twitter

Tags:

Taking A Simplistic High-Level Look at S&P 500 Earnings

Dec 10, 2012 in Earnings | S&P 500

The S&P 500 is expected to earn about $110-$112 in earnings in CY 2013.   With the S&P 500 cash index closing at 1,418 yesterday, the P/E is 12.7x.

In January, you can be sure to hear a lot about earnings and speculation on what will happen to that ~$111 figure.   It is probably too high given that is the norm.  That is,  estimates usually start high and then move down somewhat throughout the year.   That has not been bearish in the past -- that is the normal 'expected' result (there are many, many examples of the market doing well as earnings dropped). What is significant is if it falls sharply -- or rises even modestly-- those are not normal.

Recessions cause S&P earnings to drop sharply so that is of course the ultimate in concerns.   What is always interesting is for an earnings report from XYZ company to come out and then various commentators will try to extrapolate a forthcoming big disaster for the economy based on that result.   Those people have been consistently run over in this bull market.  

With that all in mind, here are some high level numbers to help keep it in perspective -- just the S&P 500 companies alone are projected right now to do about $1.04 trillion in net income (with a 't').   So that means that each $1 in S&P index earnings per share is about $9.3 billion in actual after-tax income dollars.   Next time you hear about some company that is going to drive the economy off a cliff, think about that statistic.   Is it so bad as to take -$93 billion off S&P aggregate earnings --- if it is, then that will cost the S&P -$10 of its ~$111.

Taken a step further, a recession might cause EPS to drop back well below $100. But to get from $112.00 down to say $90.00 (a -$22 per share) --- that works out to be about ~$202 billion less in net income.

That is quite a drop.   Wal-mart is projected to do about $18 billion in 2013 so we need the equivalent of 11 Wal-Marts to all simultaneously become profitless.  

We will have another profit downturn someday because we will have another recession someday -- but that is about all you can say as there is nothing right now that would indicate this is happening.  Indeed, financial sector earnings have actually increased over the last 90 days -- led by Bank of America, a company expected to do $11 billion of earnings in 2013 -- which is still down by about 50% vs expectations ~5 years ago.   Yes, tech earnings have weakened and energy has had a very poor earnings year -- so of course we will continue to pay attention to those developing situations.

Then again, you don't need any of that to happen just to have a market correction.   Be diligent and manage risk of course --- but keep this all in mind next time you hear how Caterpillar is taking its profit estimate down by $300 million for 2013 --- which is not even the equivalent of a nickel of the ~$111.00 S&P index earnings per share.   For S&P earnings to drop real materially,  you need a major sector to pretty much implode (like Tech in 2001 and Financials in 2008) ---  and then for a real doozie of a drawdown, you need the problem child sector to also drag others down with them into the abyss.   That is what causes the largest market drawdowns. 

 

Follow us on Follow etfreplay on Twitter

Tags:

Follow ETFreplay

Archives