ETF Backtest Concepts - Relative Strength And The Use of a Moving Average Filter

Apr 30, 2018 in Advanced Relative Strength | Backtest | moving average | Video

A video using ETFreplay Backtesting to look at some relative strength concepts and a moving average filter (daily).

 

 to expand video on screen, click the '4 expanding arrows' icon in the bottom right corner of the video screen

 

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2000 to 2003 focus QQQ's large drawdown backtest

Jan 07, 2018 in Backtest | moving average

Study many different sub-periods for many different markets.  It helps you understand scenarios, it helps you understand strengths and weaknesses of various techniques in backtesting.

Learn how to put the odds in your favor.   If you study many different time periods across many types of markets, you will gain understanding of a strategy that is fragile vs a strategy that is more durable.   You will have ideas that cannot be supported and you realize their weaknesses.   Running bad backtests and learning from that is part of the process.

Below is one look at the 2000-2003 bear market.  We suggest you look at that time period and many other time periods using many different types of funds.   QQQ's downturn was especially bad due to the extended run-up in the prior years (QQQ index existed in prior years but the ETF product QQQ of course did not exist prior to the middle of 1999). 

 

 

 **A pro subscription allows you to backtest to 12/31/99 using daily total return data. 

 

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Country Funds vs Their Moving Averages

Jun 21, 2014 in Country Funds | moving average

It was interesting to read bearish stories in March and April given that the Global Market was at that very moment IMPROVING.    While U.S. has been in an unbroken bull market,  you can see how there may be better opportunities for new leadership elsewhere....

 

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Moving Averages Have Confirmed Trends

Aug 17, 2011 in Country Funds | moving average

Equity Indices have confirmed the loss in relative strength made a few months ago -- snapshots below:

Country Funds (note the different types of countries that were already in downtrends at or before last month-end:   Canada, Australia, China etc...)

 

 

Here are 25 Very Common Indices (of course, bonds and gold have been in bull markets):

 

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Backtesting: Combining Relative Strength With A Moving Average Filter

Jan 11, 2011 in Backtest | moving average | Relative Strength

We have added an optional moving average (MA) filter feature to the RS backtest app.  With the recently expanded date start and stop functionality, the applications continue to get more versatile.  

Combining a long-term moving average within the construct of relative strength has been highly requested and we wanted to discuss one idea when considering whether to use it (note that you can just leave it set to ‘off’ as well).  

If you build a relative strength list of say 10 ETFs and you are choosing the top 2,  you could protect your portfolio by including 2 bond funds.   You don’t need a moving average filter because the bond funds will naturally be the ones with the relative strength when equity markets are dropping.   This method actually can get more interesting because you can make better use of more type of ETFs.   Rather than just use cash-like bond funds, you might want to extend the potential holdings to an intermediate bond fund like IEF (7-8 year duration) or others. You don't HAVE to restrict yourself to just stocks and cash.   

Another way to test is by using a moving average.   If you do it this way, then you will inherently be out of ETFs as they go into extended downtrends.  You don’t have to proportionally keep X number of bond funds in your list if you do it this way.    

But a lot of indexes can go above or below a long-term moving average and still not really be a source of market leadership and enhance your return.   Moreover, you may save a lot of money between the time ETFs lose relative strength and the time they actually cross below the moving average.   For these reasons, we believe adding relative strength to a MA strategy will generally be more robust.   Adding MA to a RS strategy is optional -- and you may find works better or worse than your existing method.   Continuous testing leads to better decisions.

 

 

 

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Moving Average ETF Backtest For Portfolios: New Functionality

Sep 20, 2010 in Backtest | moving average

If you have created a portfolio list on ETFreplay, we are building new applications to leverage your ETF lists.  (If you are unsure on how to create a personalized ETF list, click here for a quick video: Setting Up Portfolio Lists Short Tutorial Video )

We have two new modules out that we have been working on for the past few months.  These applications offer simplified views to help us try to understand larger forces at work in the global marketplace.  

Building upon academic research regarding the use of moving averages, these apps save investors time by allowing many calculations and quantitative analyses to be simplified into a few clicks.  We think that creating specific entry/exit rules and creating a detailed strategy report adds value to better understanding a concept. That is, we create apps that convert concepts into tangible, specific techniques.  The accountability of these techniques is built into the very architecture of the website. On any day, you are just a click away from an updated view of the profit and loss history of a particular strategy.

Importantly, this type of research should be used as a complement to other forms of research. We suggest you think about which types of ETFs you want to be involved with over the long-run and then use techniques such as relative strength and moving average backtesting to help you research methods that reduce risk of a large drawdown, while potentially offering to enhance your return as well.

 

ETFreplay.com/backtest.aspx

 

 

The example below uses 4 key smaller developed markets outside Europe & the U.S.

1.  EWA   iShares MSCI Australia Index
2.  EWC   iShares MSCI Canada Index
3.  EWH   iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index
4.  EWS   iShares MSCI Singapore Index

 

 

 

 

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Moving Average Backtest Page Added To Site, Have A Look

Apr 13, 2010 in Backtest | moving average

New application added. This simple application generates a report for any ETF in our database based on the user-defined rules regarding a moving average cross.

 

 

Moving Average Backtest Page

Comments and feedback appreciated.

Thanks,

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