ETFreplay.com is a research, analysis and backtesting website for Exchange Traded
Funds.
ETFreplay’s tools are designed to allow investors to find, test and pursue a robust
and repeatable process for gaining exposure to up-trends while avoiding large drawdowns.
An investment process is a set of well-defined steps undertaken in a consistent
manner to create and maintain an appropriate portfolio designed to meet your investment
goals. A good process balances the need for a level of return with the risk of loss
(drawdowns).
We generally assume that investors have their own ideas on which asset classes,
sectors, countries, regions or industries they want to monitor.
However, if you are agnostic about the universe of ETFs, portfolios with a good
broad mix of asset classes, such as the well known Permanent Portfolio, Ivy Portfolio or our own Sample portfolio
provide a good starting point.
Once this defined universe is in place, the tools on ETFreplay can be used to find,
test and pursue a robust and repeatable process for gaining exposure to up-trends
while avoiding large drawdowns.
Yes, all returns and calculations (including moving averages) on ETFreplay are Total
Return, which accounts for the receipt and reinvestment of dividends and distributions.
See Total Returns vs. Price
Return
We only use trading days and start with the convention of 252 trading days per year,
therefore:
6-months is 252/2 = 126 trading days
3-months is 252/4 = 63 trading days etc.
This means that when, for instance, 3-month returns are chosen on the Screener,
the calculation will always count back 63 trading days, making comparisons over
time consistent.
The Screener is a statistical model that ranks ETFs according to their Relative
Strength. To do this, it has 3-factors:
- 2 Return Time Frames (ReturnA and ReturnB)
- 1 Volatility Time Frame
Each of these three factors is assigned a weight, which can be adjusted.
For information on how the ranks are determined see
How the Screener Works.
There is an entire field of study devoted to behavioral finance. All people suffer from various biases
that can range from overconfidence to fear. Adding a quantitative component to your
overall process helps by offering an objective view. This does not mean you MUST
follow your model --- backtesting and models in general should be used as key inputs
to your overall research process. Good judgment will always be a part of balancing
reward and risk.
Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of daily returns.
i.e. 20-day Volatility is the standard deviation of the past 20 1-day returns multiplied
by sqrt(252) (annualized).
Volatility is a measure of risk. Higher volatility securities tend to have larger
drawdowns than lower volatility ETFs.
See Volatility blog
posts