New Mean Reversion Backtest
Mar 03, 2020
in Backtest, Mean Reversion
We have introduced a new backtest for subscribers that is focused on short term mean reversion. It is intended to be used with highly related securities, which are unlikely to drift apart for very long before coming back together. Consequently, when one of the securities underperforms by a non-insignificant margin, an opportunity occurs.
The backtest works by comparing the difference in the x-day Total Return between the securities / ETFs. When that x-day return difference is more than y standard deviations below the mean, the backtest will buy Security 1. It will then hold that security until it reaches z standard deviations above the mean, when it will be sold in favor of Security 2.
Suitable primarily for non-taxable accounts only, the idea is that these short-term trades among correlated assets can be used to materially enhance the returns through compounding without a material difference in the underlying beta exposure. More return not for less risk -- but for very similar risk. Said another way, taking a modicum of extra risk can be quite profitable.
Go to Total Return Difference (TRD) - Mean Reversion Backtest
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