SPY Seasonality
Nov 03, 2025
in Total Return
SPY returns have been positive more frequently in November than any other month of the year. Since its inception, SPY has produced a median return of 3% in November and been positive 78% of the time.
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Its best November return so far has been +10.9% in 2020 and its worst -7.5% in 2000. 2021 was the last time it posted a negative return in November (-0.8%).
The first half of November has historically been stronger than the second half of the month for SPY; its median return for the first half of November is +2% and it’s been positive 75% of the time versus a median return of +1% with 71.9% positive for the second half.
SPY’s worst first-half November return so far has been -10.5% in 2008. It last produced a negative return for the first half of November in 2015 (-2.6%). In 2015 the second half of November reversed the first half decline and SPY finished the month positive.
QQQ has also been positive more frequently in November than any other month, though it is also the month with the highest standard deviation.
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