Aug 31, 2021
in Backtest, Moving Average, Channel, Ratio
We have added three new Parameter Summaries to the website:
As with the Relative Strength and TRD summaries that we introduced in July, each of the above can be accessed from their respective backtests.
Set the min, max and step / increment for each parameter, then click 'Run Backtests' and the tabulated results will be displayed:
Parameter Summaries are available to all (regular and pro) annual subscribers.
** studying the guidelines that we published within the orginal Parameter Summaries announcement is highly recommended **
Apr 23, 2019
An uptrend is a series of higher highs and higher lows. Using a ratio between 2 securities shows which is relatively stronger. A Relative Strength analysis can quantify which security within a list of MORE THAN 2 securities is strongest.
So let's look at one current situation. Emerging markets have shown good relative strength on shorter-term basis. If this continues then a higher low and higher highs situation could develop (vs SP 500). That said, SPY has continued to be strong -- both Emerging markets AND US Stocks have been strong this year. It actually hasn't mattered which you've owned --- so even if you were wrong on thinking a ratio would go up/down, you still made good money either way. This won't always be the case though.
Jan 23, 2017
in Regime Change, Ratio
Last month we did a blog post on using high-yield bonds as a key indicator. This month we continue with a focus of using financial stock ETFs as a second indicator.
Many people seem to want to try to simplify everything down to one variable -- often something like a P/E ratio or a moving average. We think investors should look at a range of important indicators and then take a weight-of-the-evidence approach. Indeed, we built ETFreplay.com so that you can easily run and update a list of strategies AND do this on a continuous basis and thereby stay in tune with the overall structure of the market.
There is no better information than that which the market itself generates. A good market participant will learn to read what the market structure is telling you by analyzing its intermarket relationsihps.
Financial companies have business models that make our economy go. From mortgages and credit cards for individuals to bank loans and payment services for corporations, financial companies are absolutely vital indicators on overall conditions and this is why these companies are regulated closely by government agencies.
It makes sense that when financial stocks are doing well, how bad can the market environment be?? Look back at past recessions and you will see very poor performance of financial stocks.
The backtest below is meant as an INDICATOR -- not a strategy to implement per se.
When financial stocks are beating a known risk-off stable segment like US Consumer Staples, we will bring our portfolio Beta up above 1.00 by adding a 25% position in SSO (the 2x S&P 500 ETF).
When financial stocks are underperforming, we will split our holdings into 50% SPY and 50% TLT. This is the 'risk-off' portfolio. (Note that in this example -- no matter which regime is in play, the portfolio will hold at LEAST 50% SPY -- think of that as the 'core' portfolio and the other 50% as the 'satellite').
Here are the results. Make sure to dive-in and immerse yourself in this topic. Alter the time periods incrementally. Alter the risk-on risk-off portfolios. Study sub-period backtests. What are the good aspects to this backtest? What are the possible limitations?
Oct 17, 2016
Every recession has something in common: investors flee junk bonds. You do NOT have to predict this, you only need to monitor it.
Junk bond investors got worried in late 2014 and much of 2015 -- and the stock market went effectively nowhere during that time (while High-Quality and Low Volatility segments outperformed strongly).
Most of 2016 has seen a decent bull market in junk bonds. Since fixed-income investors are very sensitive to their income actually being fixed --- and not variable, this group of investors is a very useful group to track.
Sep 02, 2016
There are lots of ways to skin a cat of course. Here is a look at results of using a simple total return ratio between Emerging Markets (VWO) and an iShares Treasury ETF (IEF):