Feb 16, 2024
in Backtest, Relative Strength, RS Composite
The ETF Relative Strength backtest, which is free to use, now offers the option to backtest either regular 3-Factor RS models or Relative Strength Composite models.
With Relative Strength Composite, rather than relying on a single lookback period for relative strength, you can diversify across a range of RS lengths and thereby protect against parameter choice misfortune.
i.e. though a particular lookback may have historically outperformed other lookback lengths, there's always the possibility that it may underperform in the future.
The RS composite model reduces that risk by stepping through the lookback periods, from your chosen minimum to maximum, and invests in the top (strongest) of the 3 securities from each of those.
In the example below the minimum RS length is 3-months, the maximum is 12-months and the step value is 1. This means that, each month, the backtest will invest 10% in each of the:
- Top ETF from QQQ, MDY and SPY ranked by 3-month total return
- Top ETF from QQQ, MDY and SPY ranked by 4-month total return
- …5-month total return
- …6-month total return
- …7-month total return
- …8-month total return
- …9-month total return
- …10-month total return
- …11-month total return
- Top ranked ETF from QQQ, MDY and SPY ranked by 12-month total return
click image to view full size version
If QQQ ranks top for all 10 of those specified RS lookback periods, then 100% will be invested in QQQ. If SPY ranks top for 11 and 12-month returns and QQQ for the others, then 80% will be invested in QQQ and 20% in SPY. etc etc.
The step value can be increased to determine whether it is possible to obtain sufficient diversification without needing to employ every RS length. For instance, raising the step value to 3 in the above example will mean the backtest ranks QQQ, MDY and SPY by 3, 6, 9 and 12-month returns each month and invests 25% in the top ranked security from each of those.
To backtest just 6 and 12-month RS lengths, set RS Length Min to 6-months, Max to 12-months and Step to 6. The backtest will then, each month, rank QQQ, MDY and SPY by 6 and 12-month returns and invests 50% in the top ranked security from each.
Go to the ETF Relative Strength backtest
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Note:
- All returns on ETFreplay are Total Return, which accounts for price appreciation and the receipt and reinvestment of dividends (and any other distributions, such as capital gains distributions). See Total Return vs Price Return
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Subscribers, when logged in, have the option to switch from backtesting relative strength to mean-reversion and are not restricted to the 11 symbols provided for ETF 1, 2 and 3. Annual subscribers (regular and pro) also obviously have access to the fully fledged portfolio RS Composite backtest.
Feb 08, 2023
in Video, Parameter Summary, RS Composite
Instructional video on how to use Composite Relative Strength to improve your ETF backtesting process. #STUDY
to expand video on screen, click the '4 expanding arrows' icon in the bottom right corner of the video screen. Use the settings icon to change to 1080 quality if it seems at all blurry
See also: RS Parameter Performance Summary
Jan 30, 2023
in RS Composite
We have added a new backtest, Relative Strength Composite, which can protect against parameter choice misfortune by making it easy to diversify across a range of lookback values.
When relying solely on a single lookback period, though it may have backtested well, there's always the possibility that it may underperform in the future. The RS Composite backtest attenuates that risk by stepping through the return lookback periods, from your chosen minimum to maximum, and invests in the top (or bottom) x securities from each.
In the following example, the minimum length is 3-months, the maximum lookback is 12-months and the step value is 1. This means that, each month, the backtest will invest 10% in each of:
- Top security ranked by 3-month returns
- Top security ranked by 4-month returns
- …5-month returns
- …6-month returns
- …7-month returns
- …8-month returns
- …9-month returns
- …10-month returns
- …11-month returns
- Top security ranked by 12-month returns
click image to view full size version
The step value can be increased to assess whether it is possible to retain a significant degree of diversification without needing to employ every return length. For instance, raising the step value to 3 in the above example will mean that the backtest ranks the portfolio ETFs by 3, 6, 9 and 12-month returns each month and invests 25% in the top ranked security from each of those.
Watch video: How to use Composite Relative Strength
The Relative Strength Composite backtest is available to annual subscribers, both regular and pro.
Note:
- Just as a diversified portfolio means that some part of it will always be a drag, a composite of model variants will always underperform the single best version of a strategy....but it also avoids being exclusively in the worst.
- To see how each of the return lengths performed individually, rather than as a composite, use the RS Parameter Performance Summary